TOPICS: US-Turkey Strategic Relationship, International Arbitration, IDPs, Mindanao Insurgency, Proxy Wars
Christian Chereji and Ciprian Sandu
ARTICLES in Issue 46 – January 2024:
Turkiye: The Implication of Iraq Conflict on the US–Türkiye Strategic Relationship
Levent DUMAN & Mehmet Emin ERENDOR
The main purpose of this article is to investigate the foundations of relations between Türkiye and the US and to analyze the impact of the Iraq War on relations between the two countries. The relations that developed in the context of security after the Cold War were naturally supported by economic aid. Although there were many problems in the fragile relations during the Cold War, the ties between the two countries were never completely severed. While frequent occurrences strengthened Türkiye’s significance in the area, the divergent interests of the two nations have only recently begun to come into focus. The developments taking place in Türkiye’s neighboring countries also attract the attention of the United States, and the repercussions of events in these regions are reflected in Türkiye, especially concerning conflicts involving Russia. In this context, although the relations between the two countries are often touted as an alliance, it highlights the fact that it leans more towards a necessity. At this point, the Iraq War has had a significant impact on the relations between the two countries and has led to the emergence and increase of problems between the two countries.
Türkiye, United States, alliance, necessity, economy.
India: Third-Party Funding in Practice of International Arbitration
Vikas H. GHANDI
High expenses are associated with international investment arbitration. To save the additional expenditure of the adjudication, parties typically prefer sponsored third-party arbitration proceedings. On the other hand, the third-party funder is interested in funding the arbitration to benefit significantly from the dispute’s resolution. Interestingly, the arbitrators should be able to overlook the Third-Party Funding [TPF] issue to gain the necessary competency. Their competence is limited to disputes between the foreign investor and the host state only. This article discusses the concept and legal status of the third-party funder in arbitration.
Arbitration, third-party funding, expenses, adjudication, disputes, dispute resolution.
Kenya: Establishing the Nature and Rate of Resilience (Recovery) Among the Displaced Population in Nakuru County
Although internal displacement of persons has been witnessed in Kenya over the years, the 2007/08 episode was the most severe. This study was conducted to examine the socio economic characteristics of the internally displaced population (IDPs) and to assess the nature of the initial resettlement among the displaced population at the Nakuru Pipeline Complex, Nakuru County, Kenya. The study used a survey design and sampled 260 households from the resettlement register. Questionnaires which included the household displacement deprivation scale and key informant guide were used. Indicators that were rated worst (i.e., severely or rarely available or accessible) at the time of the initial settlement in 2008 included loss of self-esteem (82%), loss of income (82%), loss of employment (78%), lack of shelter (81%) and loss of property (71%). By 2018, there were considerable improvements (recovery) that included housing (72.0%), food access (63.0%), water (57.0%), and clothing (54.0%) compared to the initial crisis periods. Given the occurrence of processes that induce disasters and displacement, social development efforts should be directed to the reduction of vulnerabilities, including socio-ecological vulnerabilities. Such measures will ensure that when disasters and displacements occur, it will be possible for the people, and citizens, to recover, adapt to new environments, and continue with their livelihoods. Reduction of severity in magnitude and duration will need to be an integral part of the social development planning.
Resilience, internally displaced population, displacement, Nakuru Pipeline, deprivation.
Philippines: Diaspora and Homeland Conflict. Locating the Moro Diaspora in the Mindanao Insurgency
Jose Mikhail PEREZ
An ever-expanding body of literature suggests the possible link between diasporas and the exacerbation of civil wars in their home countries. One of the most notable findings on the link between diaspora and armed conflict is derived from a set of arguments known as the Greed and Grievances Thesis. According to the said framework, a higher diasporic support to a homeland conflict is positively correlated with a higher incidence of civil war intractability. Applying this framework to the data on external support to the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) insurgency from 1990–2008, the study notes that there is a lack of support from the Moro diaspora which forced the MILF to secure peace with the Philippine government. On the contrary, the increase in conflict activities during the insurgency can be qualitatively attributed to the economic and political support from hostile states and international terrorist networks that support the Moro insurgents against the Philippine government. The study concludes that there is an absence of substantial evidence on the role of the Moro diaspora in funding the insurgents due to other factors such as internal financing for the rebellion and the role of international actors in prolonging the Moro conflict.
Moro Muslims, diaspora, civil war, homeland conflict, the Philippines.
Syria: Proxy Wars in the Middle East
The conflict in Syria quickly escalated into a complex and prolonged civil war where states outside the conflict fueled rebel groups to fight. The onset of multiple proxy wars befell Syria. Proxy war happens when a ruler of a state devises and facilitates the provision of support to a rebel group that is engaged in carrying out violent activities in another state. Thus, an external state can influence the outcome of a civil war without having to bear the heavy costs of sending its army forces. States that wage proxy wars risk a potential conflict escalation, and gamble with provoking retaliation by either the offending state or its allies. Furthermore, inadvertent consequences of backing rebel forces are also possible such as international condemnation. So, why does a state choose to form a relationship with a proxy group, instead of intervening directly? Why invest money and military power in a third party that could lead to a prolonged conflict? The analysis highlights that the political survival of regimes in the Middle East caused leaders to support rebel groups in Syria. I present a causal mechanism that is based on transnational threats to explain the phenomenon of proxy war in the Syrian civil war.
Syria, proxy war, Middle East, qualitative analysis, foreign policy.